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Adani Group has pulled back from a $1.4B deal to acquire Emaar’s India unit after talks collapsed over valuation. Meanwhile, India is granting key regulatory exemptions to Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund to unlock billions in new investments. And in Dubai, Fitch warns the city’s booming real estate market may be cooling, with prices expected to dip up to 15% amid record new supply.

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Adani, Emaar Talks Over Indian Real Estate Unit Collapse Amid Valuation Dispute

🏗️ What Is It About

• Talks between Adani Group and Dubai-based Emaar Properties to sell the Indian unit of Emaar have collapsed.

• The negotiations reportedly broke down over disagreements on the valuation of Emaar India Ltd.

• In March, Bloomberg had reported that discussions were underway for a potential deal at a $1.4 billion enterprise value.

• Emaar had earlier confirmed interest from multiple Indian buyers, including Adani.

💡 Why It Matters

• A successful deal would have significantly expanded Adani Realty's footprint in the Indian real estate market.

• Adani’s realty arm currently manages 24 million sq ft of property with another 61 million sq ft under development.

• The deal breakdown highlights valuation mismatches that continue to affect large M&A deals in India's real estate sector.

🔮 What’s Next

• While talks are currently off, sources suggest negotiations could resume in the future.

• Neither Adani nor Emaar has issued an official statement in response to media inquiries.

• The outcome leaves Emaar India’s ownership future uncertain, as the company continues exploring other options.

Markets

India Grants Key Exemption to Saudi Wealth Fund in Bid to Boost Investment Ties: Reuters

📰 What Is It About

• India has granted an exemption to Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) from certain foreign portfolio investment (FPI) rules, according to sources.

• The exemption removes the requirement to club investments by different sovereign entities, which was previously capping PIF’s total exposure in a single Indian company at 10%.

• This move follows Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Saudi Arabia in April, where both countries reaffirmed investment commitments in sectors like energy, infrastructure, and pharmaceuticals.

💡 Why It Matters

• The rule change gives PIF greater flexibility to channel investments into India via multiple arms without breaching regulatory limits.

• It marks a significant policy shift aimed at encouraging long-term capital flows from Gulf nations.

• PIF, with $925 billion in assets, has only a modest presence in India so far—$1.5B in Jio Platforms and $1.3B in Reliance Retail.

• This decision reflects growing strategic alignment between India and Saudi Arabia, especially under Vision 2030and India's push to attract infrastructure capital.

🔮 What’s Next

• The exemption could unlock more equity investments from Saudi entities across Indian sectors.

• Negotiations continue on a Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) between the two nations, with both sides expressing a desire for a quick conclusion.

• A $100 billion investment plan by Saudi Arabia into India is being fast-tracked by a joint high-level task force, with taxation reforms already noted as a breakthrough.

• Reports suggest tax relief measures for PIF may be next, especially in energy and infrastructure investments.

Dubai Property Prices May Drop Up to 15% as Market Peaks, Fitch Warns

📰 What Is It About

• Dubai’s real estate market has likely reached its peak in the current cycle, with Fitch Ratings forecasting a price correction of up to 15% between late 2025 and 2026.

• The correction is tied to a record surge in housing supply, which is expected to grow 16% from 2025 to 2027, far outpacing projected population growth of 5%.

• Developers may also ease payment plans for investors from 70% to 50% during construction, making property more accessible amid cooling demand.

💡 Why It Matters

• Dubai’s property market saw a 60% price surge between 2022 and Q1 2025, driven by post-pandemic immigration and foreign investment.

• A cooling market signals a shift after years of rapid growth, affecting investor strategies, developer sales models, and bank lending patterns.

• The report highlights reduced bank exposure to real estate, with lending to the sector dropping by AED 66 billion from 2022 to 2024, reflecting tighter underwriting standards and de-risking.

🔮 What’s Next

• About 250,000 units are expected to hit the market over the next three years, with a major spike in 2026 (120,000 units)—raising concerns of oversupply.

• Prime locations are likely to remain more resilient due to their investor profile and longer holding periods.

• The market correction could reshape buyer behavior, developer offerings, and financial sector exposure in the UAE’s most active real estate hub.

🔍From Smashi Business’ Desk

• Dubai’s Viral Chocolate Bar Just Landed in $3,000/Night Hotel Rooms—But You Still Won’t Find It at Carrefour.

🔍In other news…

• Ben & Jerry's calls war in Gaza a 'genocide'.

• Dubai Launches First-Ever Property Token Ownership Certificate.

• The Syrian entrepreneur gunning to be Ukraine’s drone king: Semafor

• Turkey seeks more UAE investments in AI amid strengthening of ties.

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