Happy Saturday everyone!

It’s a big day in Middle East geopolitics with major implications for business. The Trump administration is preparing a massive $100 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia, expected to be announced during a high-profile visit in May. In Lebanon, Economy Minister Amer Bisat stressed the need for patience as the country pushes forward with long-overdue economic reforms. Meanwhile, U.S. Congressman Cory Mills held unofficial talks with Syria’s new president Ahmed Al-Sharaa, signaling potential backchannel diplomacy on sanctions relief and regional peace. These developments could reshape investment flows, defense contracts, and diplomatic dynamics across the region

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Trump Administration Plans Over $100 Billion Arms Deal With Saudi Arabia During May Visit

📰 What is it about?

• The Trump administration is preparing a massive arms package for Saudi Arabia, valued at over $100 billion, according to six sources who spoke to Reuters.

• The deal is expected to be announced during Donald Trump's upcoming visit to Riyadh in May, in a move signaling a renewed push to deepen U.S.-Saudi defense ties.

• The proposed package includes contributions from Lockheed Martin, RTX Corp (formerly Raytheon), Boeing, Northrop Grumman, and General Atomics, encompassing transport aircraft, radars, missiles, and potentially MQ-9B drones.

• While many components of the deal have been in the pipeline for years, sources say it has gained momentum in recent months.

💡 Why it matters?

• The arms offer comes after President Biden failed to finalize a defense pact with Riyadh that linked advanced U.S. weapons to Saudi normalization with Israel and reduced Chinese influence.

• Trump has historically touted arms deals as job creators and strategic wins for the U.S. defense sector.

• This deal signals a shift in U.S. policy back to stronger military ties with Saudi Arabia, despite past tensions over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi and the Yemen war.

• The lifting of Biden-era bans on offensive weapons sales in 2024 and the current regional instability, particularly post-October 7, have opened the door for closer U.S.-Saudi cooperation again.

• The proposed inclusion of F-35 fighter jets, while unlikely in the immediate term, touches on sensitive geopolitical balances — especially Israel’s guaranteed Qualitative Military Edge (QME).

🔜 What’s next?

• Formal announcement expected in May, during Trump's visit to the kingdom.

• Several U.S. defense executives are reportedly considering joining the delegation to Riyadh.

• The package will still require Congressional review and approval, which may reignite domestic debate over arms sales to Saudi Arabia.

• Discussions around F-35 jets will likely continue but remain constrained by Israel’s regional military advantage guarantees.

• The deal may reshape the regional defense landscape and revive U.S. defense industry revenues tied to Gulf allies.

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💡 Why Choose ODEUM?

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Markets

Lebanon’s Economy Minister Pledges Reforms But Urges Patience Amid Deepening Crisis

📰 What is it about?

• Lebanon’s new economy minister, Amer Bisat, says the government is committed to implementing key economic reforms but cautions that change will take time.

• Speaking to The National during the 2025 IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, Bisat emphasized the complexity of Lebanon’s situation and the long road ahead.

• The government has already taken initial reform steps since its formation earlier this year, but more are needed to meet IMF requirements, particularly in banking sector restructuring and depositor protection.

• Bisat, a former BlackRock executive, was appointed in February, following the election of Joseph Aoun as presidentand the appointment of Nawaf Salam as prime minister, ending a political deadlock since 2022.

💡 Why it matters?

• Lebanon has been in a deep economic crisis since 2019, worsened by last year’s Hezbollah-Israel conflict.

• The World Bank estimates that the country will need around $11 billion for recovery and reconstruction.

• Confidence in Lebanon’s financial system has crumbled, with depositors unable to access their funds for years.

• An earlier $3 billion IMF deal in 2022 stalled due to unfulfilled reforms—current discussions could revive that agreement.

• Restoring trust in the banking system is vital for attracting foreign investment, repatriating skilled workers, and enabling long-term growth planning.

🔜 What’s next?

• The Lebanese delegation in Washington is delivering three key messages: unity in government, commitment to reform, and a realistic approach to the country’s challenges.

• Bisat stressed that Lebanon is not asking for solutions, but presenting its own plan for reform and growth.

• Immediate priorities include lifting bank secrecy, passing a bank resolution law, and enforcing financial regulations.

• Further discussions with the IMF are expected to continue in the coming weeks and months, focusing on public finance, monetary policy, and electricity infrastructure.

• Bisat remains “cautiously optimistic”, underscoring that rebuilding investor confidence is essential to Lebanon’s recovery.

Trump Ally Meets Syrian Leader to Discuss Sanctions Relief and Possible Peace with Israel

What is happening?

• U.S. Congressman Cory Mills, a Republican from Florida and close ally of Donald Trump, met with Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa in Damascus last week.

• The unofficial visit, organized by Syrian-American intermediaries, focused on conditions for the removal of U.S. sanctions and potential peace talks with Israel.

• Mills told Bloomberg he plans to brief Trump and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz upon his return and will deliver a letter from Sharaa to Trump.

• He also met Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani, and described the 90-minute conversation with Sharaa as “positive.”

Why it matters:

• The visit marks the first known contact between a U.S. lawmaker and Syria’s new leadership since Bashar Al-Assad was overthrown in December.

• Syria is seeking sanctions relief to rebuild its economy, with costs of reconstruction estimated at $400 billion.

• Gulf powers like Qatar and Saudi Arabia are interested in supporting Syria’s recovery but are constrained by current U.S. sanctions.

• Mills laid out U.S. expectations: chemical weapons disposal, counter-terrorism cooperation, management of foreign fighters, and security assurances to Israel.

• Sharaa signaled openness to joining the Abraham Accords, under the right conditions, a move that would reshape regional dynamics.

What’s next?

• Mills’ debrief with Trump and top aides could shape future U.S. engagement with Damascus under a potential second Trump administration.

• Any easing of sanctions would require congressional oversight, especially due to Syria’s continued listing as a state sponsor of terrorism.

• Israeli skepticism and concerns over Sharaa’s past links to al-Qaeda remain major obstacles to normalized relations.

• Human rights concerns, particularly the recent execution of hundreds of Alawites, could complicate Syria’s reintegration into the global community.

• The visit suggests early backchannel diplomacy is underway, with wider implications for U.S. Middle East policy and conflict resolution in Syria.

🔍In other news…

• Dubai AI Week 2025: DFF, Google Cloud partner to empower chief AI officers.

• Lebanon passes banking secrecy law in third attempt to meet IMF demands.

• Most Gulf Cooperation Council economies to grow at slower pace in 2025: Reuters Poll

• Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala, US Investor Fortress Launch $1B Private Credit Alliance.

• Egypt Seeks Investment In 23 Dry Port Projects To Become Regional Logistics Hub.

• Abu Dhabi-backed streaming platform Starzplay said it made record revenue last year, passing $100 million for the first time.

• Dubai AI Week 2025: Dubai Health Authority inks deal to train 30 executives in AI.

• Dubai records over $1.3 billion real estate transactions in one day: Key trends driving growth.

• Despite Trump, China still has a big thirst for Gulf oil.

• First Abu Dhabi among banks for Adani’s $750m loan.

• China’s Boeing boycott opens doors for Gulf carriers.

• Dubai flights: Emirates to double premium economy seats to 2 million by 2025-end.

• UAE travel: Budget Indian carriers to reroute flights after Pakistan airspace closure.

• Dubai luxury developer Omniyat mandates banks for debut dollar green sukuk.

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